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Trump–the “Wild Card”

July 31, 2017

Though the West was lulled by the People’s Republic of China’s focus on its economy and rising consumer demand, that decision was taken by a committed Maoist-Marxist-Leninist, Deng Xiaoping.

Faced with democracy protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989, Deng ordered the Chinese military to put down the protests. That led to the massacre of dissidents and repression of all moves toward democratization of the Maoist regime.

Deng cleverly overcame outrage about Tiananmen Square massacre by forcefully moving the PRC toward economic reforms. Those reforms met the desperate needs of Chinese citizens and generated resources that allowed the Chinese military to modernize.

That build-up of China’s military capabilities has led to claiming the South China sea a part of the PRC, permitting the development of Intercontinental missiles by the North Koreans, and softening the resolve of the Republic of China. The PRC is very close to realizing some very long term goals.

Long term, the PRC wants complete control of Asia, reintegration of the Republic of China into the PRC, and subjection of South Korea and Japan to PRC interests. Encouraged by an irresolute United States under President Barack Obama, the PRC now faces a different American President.

It is possible that the United States will take action to curtail North Korea’s missile forces, something that isn’t in the PRC’s short term interests. The PRC has permitted North Korea to develop a missile capacity capable of striking the domestic United States, but has no desire for North Korea to start a nuclear war.

China’s long term interest in regional dominance requires a passive United States.

The quirky election victory of Donald Trump destroyed that opportunity and now the PRC must move to control North Korea from engaging in a first strike against the United States and do what it can to defeat attempts to build anti-missile defenses of South Korea and militarization of Japan.

The PRC overplayed its hand and must now carefully retreat from the brink of war.

America’s long term interests in Asia were foiled by post World War II decisions to pacify Japan and now Japan appreciates that it is vulnerable to threats by the PRC.. Long simmering desires by Japan to militarize will lead to greater tensions as Japan prepares to protect its citizens by developing its civilian defense capabilities. South Korea faces immediate destruction from conventional forces, if North Korea is attacked by the United States and is clamoring for American anti-missile defensive systems.

Though fraught by dangerous developments, a hot war is not in the interest of the PRC nor the United States. Unfortunately, the PRC is not certain that the President of the United States agrees. Trump is a wildcard in the mix that has thrown PRC planning into complete confusion.

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