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Limiting “Big Government”

October 23, 2019

The Republican Party was once the vehicle for political and economic conservatives who are committed to reducing the size and intrusiveness of “Big Government.” Decisions by the Supreme Court of the United States as in Roe v. Wade aroused Protestant Christians calling themselves a “Moral Majority” who joined the fight. But voters driven by moral concerns tend to be indifferent to issues concerning the power of the State.

If there is a future for the Republican Party after Trump, and many doubt that there is, what are the forces that may shape the future of the United States in the next fifty years.

Clearly, a growing welfare state with “entitlements” for the elderly place the economy of the United States at grave risk. Absent politicians willing to touch this “third rail” of government, only alienation of Millennials and subsequent younger generations of Americans whose payroll deductions finance government programs may lead to reductions in entitlement benefits.

The “deficit” may be resolved by growing numbers of younger Americans voting their pocketbook.

But the United States exists in a world of other nations, three of which will shape American foreign policy:¬† Russia, the People’s Republic of China and Iran.

The Islamic radicals in control of Iran are motivated by political and religious interests and a rising Islam focused in the government of Iran is a threat to South Asia and the Arab states in the Middle East.

The government of Russia is seeking to restore the Russian Empire along lines of Czarist Russia and the People’s Republic of China’s goal is to control north Asia, including South Korea, the Republic of China and Japan.

The American national interest is in containment of the ambitions of these three nation-states. In the case of Iran, it is highly likely that the United States will be compelled to engage in a decapitation of the leaders of Iran.

In the case of Russia, we must strive to deter Russia from occupying Ukraine and we must use trade with the PRC as a weapon seeking to play for time as internal forces change the direction of a Maoist regime now dependent on internal controls to constrain a fractious and long suffering population from overthrowing an out-of-date totalitarian regime.

President Trump has demonstrated that he lacks understanding of strategic weaknesses of the United States vis a vis our three principal enemies and relies on lessons he learned as a cadet at New York Military Academy. Without a base in the conservative movement, Trump relies on persons with military experience, career military and former Generals and Admirals.

None of them are adequate since the United States military is steeped in the principles of the international order of law and organizations and not in the principles of the Republic fashioned by the Framers after the American War of Independence.

If we assume that President Trump will be elected in 2020, we can see the outline of future American foreign policy through 2024–weaponization of trade with the PRC, acceptance of revival of a Russian Empire and war with Iran.

If President Trump is defeated by any of the Democrat politicians seeking the nomination of their Party in 2020, collapse of the American economy from the weight of economic programs will drive the election results in 2024.

Unfortunately, political and economic conservatives lack the leadership they were given by Ronald Reagan and no leaders are in the wings waiting to take the role of leader of the opposition to Big Government.

Ted Cruz is preferred, but he is not disciplined by a philosophy of government as much as by his experience as the son of a Protestant apocalyptic preacher. Marco Rubio has cast his lot with AEI neoconservatives and Rand Paul was shaped by some very nutty ideas of his father, Ron Paul.

If that’s the core of the political and economic, anti-Big Government forces in the GOP, we’re in very deep doo-doo.

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