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Your College will Close

March 26, 2020

I’ve predicted that come late August, 1,000 colleges, 25% will not reopen.

That’s based on the assumption that an an effective vaccine for Covid-19 will take at least 12 months to be discovered, tested, approved and marketed.

Colleges that are unable to hold classes in classrooms from fear of the virus will try to offer courses via the Internet. Most students will not pay high tuition to work from home, so only colleges with large endowments will be able to sustain large losses in income.

At least 25% will simply not reopen.

The author’s of The College Stress Test published in late February predicted that 10% of all colleges were at risk to closure. Today, a co-author of that study, Robert Zemsky raised his estimate to 20%!

Between the time Professor Zemsky completed his study and today, a pandemic is reshaping higher education. I’d provide a link to his assessment, but Professor Zemsky has published his reassessment in a journal that costs $119 a year for a subscription.

There is something poetic, not to mention revealing, that an expert on the economics of higher education is making a buck on his knowledge.

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